Friday, March 04, 2005


The Law of Averages

I was reading a story on about today's jobs report from the Labor Department and I came across this quote:
Economists had forecast the economy created 225,000 new payroll jobs last month, according to a survey by However, privately, some economists were looking for a number well above the consensus.
Um, last time I checked, a consensus forecast was composed of forecasts that are, by definition, above (and below) the consensus.

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