Friday, March 04, 2005
The Law of Averages
I was reading a story on cnn.com about today's jobs report from the Labor Department and I came across this quote:
Economists had forecast the economy created 225,000 new payroll jobs last month, according to a survey by Briefing.com. However, privately, some economists were looking for a number well above the consensus.Um, last time I checked, a consensus forecast was composed of forecasts that are, by definition, above (and below) the consensus.
